Can self-testing be enhanced to hasten safe return of healthcare workers in pandemics? Random order, open label trial using two manufacturers' SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow devices concurrently (preprint)

ObjectivesTo inform management of competing risks from Covid-19 and key-worker absence, we evaluated whether using two manufacturers lateral flow tests (LFTs) concurrently improved SARS-CoV-2 Omicron detection and was acceptable to hospital staff. In a nested study, to understand the risks of return to work after a fixed number of days of isolation or quarantine, we examined virus culture at Days 5-7 after positive test or significant exposure. Methods and Analysis1419 fully-vaccinated Liverpool (UK) University Hospitals staff participated in a random-order, open-label trial testing whether dual LFTs improved SARS-CoV2 detection, and whether dual swabbing was acceptable to users. Main outcome was self-reported LFT result. Staff enrolled via routine testing sites for symptomatic staff and close contacts. Recruitment took place between 7th February and 8th May 2022. Participants employed nose-throat swab Innova and nose-only swab Orient Gene LFTs for 10 days, with daily LFTs taken in random order. A swab for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis was taken at Day-5 and, if positive, Day-10. A questionnaire on acceptability was administered on exit. Selected participants gave swabs for viral culture on Days 5-7; swabs were delivered and returned by courier. Cultures were considered positive if cytopathic effect was apparent or the SARs-COV2 N gene sub-genomic RNA was detected by sequencing. Results226 individuals reported 1466 pairs of LFT results. Tests disagreed in 127 cases (8.7%). Orient Gene was more likely (78 cf. 49, P=0.03) to be positive. Orient Gene positive Innova negative result-pairs became more frequent over time (P<0.001). If Innova was swabbed second, it was less likely to agree with a positive Orient Gene result (P=0.005); swabbing first with Innova made no significant difference (P=0.85). Of 311 individuals completing the exit questionnaire, 90.7% reported dual swabbing was easy, 57.1% said it was no barrier to their daily routine and 65.6% preferred dual testing. Respondents had more confidence in dual c.f. single test results (median 9 cf. 8 on 10-point scale, P<0.001). Viral cultures from swabs taken at Days 5-7 were positive for 6/31 (19.4%, 7.5%-37.5%) and indeterminate for 11/31 (35.5%, 19.2%-54.6%) LFT-positive participants, indicating they were likely still infectious. ConclusionsDual brand testing increased LFT detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen by a small but meaningful margin and was acceptable to hospital workers. Viral cultures demonstrated that policies recommending safe return to work [~]5 days after Omicron infection/exposure were flawed. Key-workers should be prepared for dynamic self-testing protocols in future pandemics. Trial registrationhttps://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN47058442 (IRAS Project ID:311842) Key messagesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSO_LIOmicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves caused large-scale healthcare worker absence in late 2021 - early 2022, risking patient safety from both Covid-19 and reduced care capacity C_LIO_LILateral flow tests (LFTs) reliably detected SARS-CoV-2 antigen, more so with Omicron than prior variants, identifying the most infectious individuals C_LIO_LISelf-testing with LFT SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests reduced Covid-19 transmission, mitigating risks of return to work, including healthcare settings C_LI What this study addsO_LIDual c.f. single brand LFT testing increased SARS-CoV-2 antigen detection marginally, but more than can be explained by extending swabbing from nose-only to nose-throat C_LIO_LINHS deployment of nose-only LFTs in response to compound pressures from Omicron, winter and pandemic burnout was safe and acceptable to most participating hospital staff C_LIO_LICulturable virus was detected confidently in a fifth (and potentially in a further third) of LFT-positive hospital workers 5-7 days after their self-referral for testing, indicating substantial protracted infectiousness C_LI How this study might affect research, practice or policyO_LIThis study shows international Covid-19 policies for return to work after fixed periods (e.g. 5 days after positive test) were flawed: too little emphasis was placed on variation in infectivity between individuals C_LIO_LIFuture pandemic preparedness needs to plan testing quality assurance unified across healthcare and community self-testing contexts, including continuous study of serial daily antigen, nucleic acid and culturable virus test results C_LI

One year health outcomes associated with systemic corticosteroids for COVID-19: a longitudinal cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundIn patients with COVID-19 requiring supplemental oxygen, dexamethasone reduces acute severity and improves survival, but longer-term effects are unknown. We hypothesised that systemic corticosteroid administration during acute COVID-19 would be associated with improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL) one year after discharge. MethodsAdults admitted to hospital between February 2020 and March 2021 for COVID-19 and meeting current guideline recommendations for dexamethasone treatment were included using two prospective UK cohort studies. HRQoL, assessed by EQ-5D-5L utility index, pre-hospital and one year after discharge were compared between those receiving corticosteroids or not after propensity weighting for treatment. Secondary outcomes included patient reported recovery, physical and mental health status, and measures of organ impairment. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to account for survival and selection bias. FindingsIn 1,888 participants included in the primary analysis, 1,149 received corticosteroids. There was no between-group difference in EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year (mean difference 0.004, 95% CI: -0.026 to 0.034, p = 0.77). A similar reduction in EQ-5D-5L was seen at one year between corticosteroid exposed and non-exposed groups (mean (SD) change -0.12 (0.22) vs -0.11 (0.22), p = 0.32). Overall, there were no differences in secondary outcome measures. After sensitivity analyses modelled using a larger cohort of 109,318 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year remained similar between the two groups. InterpretationSystemic corticosteroids for acute COVID-19 have no impact on the large reduction in HRQoL one year after hospital discharge. Treatments to address this are urgently needed. Take home messageSystemic corticosteroids given for acute COVID-19 do not affect health-related quality of life or other patient reported outcomes, physical and mental health outcomes, and organ function one year after hospital discharge

Recovery from Covid-19 critical illness: A secondary analysis of the ISARIC4C CCP-UK cohort study and the RECOVER trial.

Background: We aimed to compare the prevalence and severity of fatigue in survivors of Covid-19 versus non-Covid-19 critical illness, and to explore potential associations between baseline characteristics and worse recovery. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of two prospectively collected datasets. The population included was 92 patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) with Covid-19, and 240 patients who received IMV with non-Covid-19 illness before the pandemic. Follow-up data were collected post-hospital discharge using self-reported questionnaires. The main outcome measures were self-reported fatigue severity and the prevalence of severe fatigue (severity >7/10) 3 and 12-months post-hospital discharge. Results: Covid-19 IMV-patients were significantly younger with less prior comorbidity, and more males, than pre-pandemic IMV-patients. At 3-months, the prevalence (38.9% [7/18] vs. 27.1% [51/188]) and severity (median 5.5/10 vs 5.0/10) of fatigue were similar between the Covid-19 and pre-pandemic populations, respectively. At 6-months, the prevalence (10.3% [3/29] vs. 32.5% [54/166]) and severity (median 2.0/10 vs. 5.7/10) of fatigue were less in the Covid-19 cohort. In the total sample of IMV-patients included (i.e. all Covid-19 and pre-pandemic patients), having Covid-19 was significantly associated with less severe fatigue (severity <7/10) after adjusting for age, sex and prior comorbidity (adjusted OR 0.35 (95%CI 0.15-0.76, p=0.01). Conclusion: Fatigue may be less severe after Covid-19 than after other critical illness.

Large scale phenotyping of long COVID inflammation reveals mechanistic subtypes of disease (preprint)

One in ten SARS-CoV-2 infections result in prolonged symptoms termed "long COVID", yet disease phenotypes and mechanisms are poorly understood. We studied the blood proteome of 719 adults, grouped by long COVID symptoms. Elevated markers of monocytic inflammation and complement activation were associated with increased likelihood of all symptoms. Elevated IL1R2, MATN2 and COLEC12 associated with cardiorespiratory symptoms, fatigue, and anxiety/depression, while elevated MATN2 and DPP10 associated with gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, and elevated C1QA was associated with cognitive impairment (the proteome of those with cognitive impairment and GI symptoms being most distinct). Markers of neuroinflammation distinguished cognitive impairment whilst elevated SCG3, indicative of brain-gut axis disturbance, distinguished those with GI symptoms. Women had a higher incidence of long COVID and higher inflammatory markers. Symptoms did not associate with respiratory inflammation or persistent virus in sputum. Thus, persistent inflammation is evident in long COVID, distinct profiles being associated with specific symptoms.

GWAS and meta-analysis identifies 49 genetic variants underlying critical COVID-19.

Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations2. Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group3. Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling (JAK1), monocyte-macrophage activation and endothelial permeability (PDE4A), immunometabolism (SLC2A5 and AK5), and host factors required for viral entry and replication (TMPRSS2 and RAB2A).

Long COVID in Children and Young after Infection or Reinfection with the Omicron Variant: A Prospective Observational Study.

To describe the prevalence of long COVID in children infected for the first time (n = 332) or reinfected (n = 243) with Omicron compared with test-negative children (n = 311). Overall, 12%-16% of those infected with Omicron met the research definition of long COVID at 3 and 6 months after infection, with no evidence of difference between cases of first positive and reinfected (Pχ2 = 0.17).

Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol.

PURPOSE: To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups. RESULTS: 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, -0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions. CONCLUSION: Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN66726260.

Cohort Profile: Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) (preprint)

Abstract [bullet] PHOSP-COVID is a national UK multi-centre cohort study of patients who were hospitalised for COVID-19 and subsequently discharged. [bullet] PHOSP-COVID was established to investigate the medium- and long-term sequelae of severe COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation, understand the underlying mechanisms of these sequelae, evaluate the medium- and long-term effects of COVID-19 treatments, and to serve as a platform to enable future studies, including clinical trials. [bullet] Data collected covered a wide range of physical measures, biological samples, and Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs). [bullet] Participants could join the cohort either in Tier 1 only with remote data collection using hospital records, a PROMs app and postal saliva sample for DNA, or in Tier 2 where they were invited to attend two specific research visits for further data collection and biological research sampling. These research visits occurred at five (range 2-7) months and 12 (range 10-14) months post-discharge. Participants could also participate in specific nested studies (Tier 3) at selected sites. [bullet] All participants were asked to consent to further follow-up for 25 years via linkage to their electronic healthcare records and to be re-contacted for further research. [bullet] In total, 7935 participants were recruited from 83 UK sites: 5238 to Tier 1 and 2697 to Tier 2, between August 2020 and March 2022. [bullet] Cohort data are held in a Trusted Research Environment and samples stored in a central biobank. Data and samples can be accessed upon request and subject to approvals.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses associate with sex, age and disease severity in previously uninfected people admitted to hospital with COVID-19: An ISARIC4C prospective study.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic enables the analysis of immune responses induced against a novel coronavirus infecting immunologically naïve individuals. This provides an opportunity for analysis of immune responses and associations with age, sex and disease severity. Here we measured an array of solid-phase binding antibody and viral neutralising Ab (nAb) responses in participants (n=337) of the ISARIC4C cohort and characterised their correlation with peak disease severity during acute infection and early convalescence. Overall, the responses in a Double Antigen Binding Assay (DABA) for antibody to the receptor binding domain (anti-RBD) correlated well with IgM as well as IgG responses against viral spike, S1 and nucleocapsid protein (NP) antigens. DABA reactivity also correlated with nAb. As we and others reported previously, there is greater risk of severe disease and death in older men, whilst the sex ratio was found to be equal within each severity grouping in younger people. In older males with severe disease (mean age 68 years), peak antibody levels were found to be delayed by one to two weeks compared with women, and nAb responses were delayed further. Additionally, we demonstrated that solid-phase binding antibody responses reached higher levels in males as measured via DABA and IgM binding against Spike, NP and S1 antigens. In contrast, this was not observed for nAb responses. When measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA transcripts (as a surrogate for viral shedding) in nasal swabs at recruitment, we saw no significant differences by sex or disease severity status. However, we have shown higher antibody levels associated with low nasal viral RNA indicating a role of antibody responses in controlling viral replication and shedding in the upper airway. In this study, we have shown discernible differences in the humoral immune responses between males and females and these differences associate with age as well as with resultant disease severity.

Implementation of corticosteroids in treatment of COVID-19 in the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone was the first intervention proven to reduce mortality in patients with COVID-19 being treated in hospital. We aimed to evaluate the adoption of corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 in the UK after the RECOVERY trial publication on June 16, 2020, and to identify discrepancies in care. METHODS: We did an audit of clinical implementation of corticosteroids in a prospective, observational, cohort study in 237 UK acute care hospitals between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, restricted to patients aged 18 years or older with proven or high likelihood of COVID-19, who received supplementary oxygen. The primary outcome was administration of dexamethasone, prednisolone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone. This study is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between June 17, 2020, and April 14, 2021, 47 795 (75·2%) of 63 525 of patients on supplementary oxygen received corticosteroids, higher among patients requiring critical care than in those who received ward care (11 185 [86·6%] of 12 909 vs 36 415 [72·4%] of 50 278). Patients 50 years or older were significantly less likely to receive corticosteroids than those younger than 50 years (adjusted odds ratio 0·79 [95% CI 0·70-0·89], p=0·0001, for 70-79 years; 0·52 [0·46-0·58], p<0·0001, for >80 years), independent of patient demographics and illness severity. 84 (54·2%) of 155 pregnant women received corticosteroids. Rates of corticosteroid administration increased from 27·5% in the week before June 16, 2020, to 75-80% in January, 2021. INTERPRETATION: Implementation of corticosteroids into clinical practice in the UK for patients with COVID-19 has been successful, but not universal. Patients older than 70 years, independent of illness severity, chronic neurological disease, and dementia, were less likely to receive corticosteroids than those who were younger, as were pregnant women. This could reflect appropriate clinical decision making, but the possibility of inequitable access to life-saving care should be considered. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research and UK Medical Research Council.

COVID-19 among University of Otago students living in North Dunedin households in the first half of 2022: was the prevalence underestimated?

Aims: To estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 among occupants of North Dunedin student flats between Flat Orientation Week (Flo-Week, week starting 14 February 2022) and the end of Semester 1 (week starting 30 May 2022);to investigate the potential under-reporting of cases to the University of Otago and under-recording of positive rapid antigen test (RAT) results in My Covid Record;to explore the COVID-related experiences of students during the above period. methods: Randomly selected households in the North Dunedin area were visited at the end of Semester 1 and oral consent was sought for a short interview comprising closed- and open-ended questions. Households were eligible for inclusion if at least one resident was a University of Otago student. Result(s): One hundred and thirty-five (96.4%) of 140 eligible households participated, and in 94.1% of these households at least one resident tested positive for COVID-19 between the start of Flo-Week and the date of the interview (a mean period of 109 days [standard deviation 3.6]). In total, 73.6% of the occupants in the participating households tested positive. Of the cases who were University of Otago students, 60.4% reported their positive status to the University. Of all cases diagnosed via a RAT, 66.9% uploaded their result to My Covid Record. Students reported various academic, financial and mental health stresses associated with the general COVID-19 situation during the study period. Conclusion(s): These findings suggest that the number of COVID-19 cases reported to the University of Otago between Flo-Week and the end of Semester 1 was a substantial underestimate of the true number, as was the number of cases recorded in My Covid Record. The findings also highlight the considerable impact that COVID-19 had on students during Semester 1.Copyright © 2023 New Zealand Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Occupational inequalities in the prevalence of COVID-19: A longitudinal observational study of England, August 2020 to January 2021.

The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced, amplified and created new health inequalities. Examining how COVID-19 prevalence varies by measures of work and occupation may help to understand these inequalities. The aim of the study is to evaluate how occupational inequalities in the prevalence of COVID-19 varies across England and their possible explanatory factors. We used data for 363,651 individuals (2,178,835 observations) aged 18 years and over between 1st May 2020 and 31st January 2021 from the Office for National Statistics Covid Infection Survey, a representative longitudinal survey of individuals in England. We focus on two measures of work; employment status for all adults, and work sector of individuals currently working. Multi-level binomial regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of testing positive of COVID-19, adjusting for known explanatory covariates. 0.9% of participants tested positive for COVID-19 over the study period. COVID-19 prevalence was higher among adults who were students or furloughed (i.e., temporarily not working). Among adults currently working, COVID-19 prevalence was highest in adults employed in the hospitality sector, with higher prevalence for individuals employed in transport, social care, retail, health care and educational sectors. Inequalities by work were not consistent over time. We find an unequal distribution of infections relating to COVID-19 by work and employment status. While our findings demonstrate the need for greater workplace interventions to protect employees tailored to their specific work sector needs, focusing on employment alone ignores the importance of SARS-CoV-2 transmission outside of employed work (i.e., furloughed and student populations).

The P323L substitution in the SARS-CoV-2 polymerase (NSP12) confers a selective advantage during infection.

BACKGROUND: The mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 varies at the dominant viral genome sequence and minor genomic variant population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, an early substitution in the genome was the D614G change in the spike protein, associated with an increase in transmissibility. Genomes with D614G are accompanied by a P323L substitution in the viral polymerase (NSP12). However, P323L is not thought to be under strong selective pressure. RESULTS: Investigation of P323L/D614G substitutions in the population shows rapid emergence during the containment phase and early surge phase during the first wave. These substitutions emerge from minor genomic variants which become dominant viral genome sequence. This is investigated in vivo and in vitro using SARS-CoV-2 with P323 and D614 in the dominant genome sequence and L323 and G614 in the minor variant population. During infection, there is rapid selection of L323 into the dominant viral genome sequence but not G614. Reverse genetics is used to create two viruses (either P323 or L323) with the same genetic background. L323 shows greater abundance of viral RNA and proteins and a smaller plaque morphology than P323. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that P323L is an important contribution in the emergence of variants with transmission advantages. Sequence analysis of viral populations suggests it may be possible to predict the emergence of a new variant based on tracking the frequency of minor variant genomes. The ability to predict an emerging variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the global landscape may aid in the evaluation of medical countermeasures and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 600 000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, one of the world's largest international, standardized data sets concerning hospitalized patients. METHODS: The data set analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalized between January 2020 and January 2022 in 52 countries. We investigated how symptoms on admission, co-morbidities, risk factors and treatments varied by age, sex and other characteristics. We used Cox regression models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, co-morbidities and other factors with risk of death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). RESULTS: Data were available for 689 572 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.1%) or clinically diagnosed (8.9%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 52 countries. Age [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.49 (95% CI 1.48, 1.49)] and male sex [1.23 (1.21, 1.24)] were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to an ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60 years then dropped. Symptoms, co-morbidities and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. The case-fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients and was on average 21.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Age was the strongest determinant of risk of death, with a ∼30-fold difference between the oldest and youngest groups; each of the co-morbidities included was associated with up to an almost 2-fold increase in risk. Smoking and obesity were also associated with a higher risk of death. The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method make this study a comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. Our findings may inform strategies that involve prioritization of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who have a higher risk of death.

Alternative pathway dysregulation in tissues drives sustained complement activation and predicts outcome across the disease course in COVID-19.

Complement, a critical defence against pathogens, has been implicated as a driver of pathology in COVID-19. Complement activation products are detected in plasma and tissues and complement blockade is considered for therapy. To delineate roles of complement in immunopathogenesis, we undertook the largest comprehensive study of complement in COVID-19 to date, comprehensive profiling of 16 complement biomarkers, including key components, regulators and activation products, in 966 plasma samples from 682 hospitalized COVID-19 patients collected across the hospitalization period as part of the UK ISARIC4C (International Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium) study. Unsupervised clustering of complement biomarkers mapped to disease severity and supervised machine learning identified marker sets in early samples that predicted peak severity. Compared to healthy controls, complement proteins and activation products (Ba, iC3b, terminal complement complex) were significantly altered in COVID-19 admission samples in all severity groups. Elevated alternative pathway activation markers (Ba and iC3b) and decreased alternative pathway regulator (properdin) in admission samples were associated with more severe disease and risk of death. Levels of most complement biomarkers were reduced in severe disease, consistent with consumption and tissue deposition. Latent class mixed modelling and cumulative incidence analysis identified the trajectory of increase of Ba to be a strong predictor of peak COVID-19 disease severity and death. The data demonstrate that early-onset, uncontrolled activation of complement, driven by sustained and progressive amplification through the alternative pathway amplification loop is a ubiquitous feature of COVID-19, further exacerbated in severe disease. These findings provide novel insights into COVID-19 immunopathogenesis and inform strategies for therapeutic intervention.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses.

On 24th November 2021, the sequence of a new SARS-CoV-2 viral isolate Omicron-B.1.1.529 was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titers of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic Alpha, Beta, Gamma, or Delta are substantially reduced, or the sera failed to neutralize. Titers against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in both vaccinated individuals and those infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of the large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses and uses mutations that confer tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape. This leads to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site and rebalances receptor affinity to that of earlier pandemic viruses.

The role of pandemic planning in the management of COVID-19 in England from an infection prevention and control (IPC) perspective: results of a national survey

Objectives A national survey which aimed to explore how existing pandemic preparedness plans (PPP) accounted for the demands placed on infection prevention and control (IPC) services in acute and community settings in England during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Study design A cross-sectional survey of IPC leaders working within NHS Trusts or clinical commissioning groups/integrated care systems in England. Methods Survey questions related to organisational COVID-19 preparedness pre-pandemic and the response provided during the first wave of the pandemic (January to July 2020). The survey ran from September to November 2021 and participation was voluntary. Results In total, 50 organisations responded. 71% (n=34/48) reported having a current PPP in December 2019, with 81% (n=21/26) indicating their plan was updated within the previous three years. Around half of IPC teams were involved in previous testing of these plans via internal and multi-agency tabletop exercises. Successful aspects of pandemic planning were identified as command structures, clear channels of communication, COVID-19 testing, and patient pathways. Key deficiencies were lack of PPE, difficulties with fit testing, keeping up to date with guidance, and insufficient staffing. Conclusions Pandemic plans need to consider the capability and capacity of IPC services to ensure they can contribute their critical knowledge and expertise to the pandemic response. This survey provides a detailed evaluation of how IPC services were impacted during the first wave of the pandemic and identifies key areas which need to be included in future PPP to better manage the impact on IPC services.

Estimating distribution of length of stay in a multi-state model conditional on the pathway, with an application to patients hospitalised with Covid-19.

Multi-state models are used to describe how individuals transition through different states over time. The distribution of the time spent in different states, referred to as 'length of stay', is often of interest. Methods for estimating expected length of stay in a given state are well established. The focus of this paper is on the distribution of the time spent in different states conditional on the complete pathway taken through the states, which we call 'conditional length of stay'. This work is motivated by questions about length of stay in hospital wards and intensive care units among patients hospitalised due to Covid-19. Conditional length of stay estimates are useful as a way of summarising individuals' transitions through the multi-state model, and also as inputs to mathematical models used in planning hospital capacity requirements. We describe non-parametric methods for estimating conditional length of stay distributions in a multi-state model in the presence of censoring, including conditional expected length of stay (CELOS). Methods are described for an illness-death model and then for the more complex motivating example. The methods are assessed using a simulation study and shown to give unbiased estimates of CELOS, whereas naive estimates of CELOS based on empirical averages are biased in the presence of censoring. The methods are applied to estimate conditional length of stay distributions for individuals hospitalised due to Covid-19 in the UK, using data on 42,980 individuals hospitalised from March to July 2020 from the COVID19 Clinical Information Network.

Comparison of UK paediatric SARS-CoV-2 admissions across the first and second pandemic waves.

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that the clinical characteristics of hospitalised children and young people (CYP) with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK second wave (W2) would differ from the first wave (W1) due to the alpha variant (B.1.1.7), school reopening and relaxation of shielding. METHODS: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study of patients <19 years hospitalised in the UK with SARS-CoV-2 between 17/01/20 and 31/01/21. Clinical characteristics were compared between W1 and W2 (W1 = 17/01/20-31/07/20,W2 = 01/08/20-31/01/21). RESULTS: 2044 CYP < 19 years from 187 hospitals. 427/2044 (20.6%) with asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from main analysis. 16.0% (248/1548) of symptomatic CYP were admitted to critical care and 0.8% (12/1504) died. 5.6% (91/1617) of symptomatic CYP had Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). After excluding CYP with MIS-C, patients in W2 had lower Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS, composite vital sign score), lower antibiotic use and less respiratory and cardiovascular support than W1. The proportion of CYP admitted to critical care was unchanged. 58.0% (938/1617) of symptomatic CYP had no reported comorbidity. Patients without co-morbidities were younger (42.4%, 398/938, <1 year), had lower PEWS, shorter length of stay and less respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of increased disease severity in W2 vs W1. A large proportion of hospitalised CYP had no comorbidity. IMPACT: No evidence of increased severity of COVID-19 admissions amongst children and young people (CYP) in the second vs first wave in the UK, despite changes in variant, relaxation of shielding and return to face-to-face schooling. CYP with no comorbidities made up a significant proportion of those admitted. However, they had shorter length of stays and lower treatment requirements than CYP with comorbidities once those with MIS-C were excluded. At least 20% of CYP admitted in this cohort had asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. This paper was presented to SAGE to inform CYP vaccination policy in the UK.

Fewer COVID-19 Neurological Complications with Dexamethasone and Remdesivir.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the impact of treatment with dexamethasone, remdesivir or both on neurological complications in acute coronavirus diease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We used observational data from the International Severe Acute and emerging Respiratory Infection Consortium World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterization Protocol, United Kingdom. Hospital inpatients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection admitted between January 31, 2020, and June 29, 2021, were included. Treatment allocation was non-blinded and performed by reporting clinicians. A propensity scoring methodology was used to minimize confounding. Treatment with remdesivir, dexamethasone, or both was assessed against the standard of care. The primary outcome was a neurological complication occurring at the point of death, discharge, or resolution of the COVID-19 clinical episode. RESULTS: Out of 89,297 hospital inpatients, 64,088 had severe COVID-19 and 25,209 had non-hypoxic COVID-19. Neurological complications developed in 4.8% and 4.5%, respectively. In both groups, neurological complications were associated with increased mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, worse self-care on discharge, and time to recovery. In patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with dexamethasone (n = 21,129), remdesivir (n = 1,428), and both combined (n = 10,846) were associated with a lower frequency of neurological complications: OR = 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69-0.83), OR = 0.69 (95% CI = 0.51-0.90), and OR = 0.54 (95% CI = 0.47-0.61), respectively. In patients with non-hypoxic COVID-19, dexamethasone (n = 2,580) was associated with less neurological complications (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62-0.97), whereas the dexamethasone/remdesivir combination (n = 460) showed a similar trend (OR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.31-1.15). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with dexamethasone, remdesivir, or both in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was associated with a lower frequency of neurological complications in an additive manner, such that the greatest benefit was observed in patients who received both drugs together. ANN NEUROL 2022.